Russia attacks Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure
Ukrainian energy infrastructure has suffered immense attacks by Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since Ukraine’s attack on 8 October on Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to annexed Crimea, Vladimir Putin has increased its air strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This follows Russia’s capture of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Ukraine and recent attacks on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, which supplies energy from Russia to Europe. According to the UK Ministry of Defence, Russia likely intends “to cause widespread damage to Ukraine’s energy distribution network”, especially as winter approaches. As of October 2022, nearly 40% of energy infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed and Ukrainians have been urged to stockpile on emergency essentials such as water, blankets, and socks.
As part of a wave of strikes since 10 October, Russian missiles have damaged the offices of Ukraine’s electric transmission company energy in Kyiv, as well as eight energy facilities in Lviv, Burshtyn, Ladyzhyn, Kryvyi Rih, Konotop, and Kyiv. The upswing in Russian military operations directed at Ukrainian energy infrastructure has and will continue to have substantial geopolitical consequences and contribute to increased tension in strategic relationships. President Zelensky claims the increased attacks are aimed at initiating a refugee exodus, especially as winter creeps closer and greater heating is required to keep households warm; the realisation of this aim will, without doubt, further burden the strained energy systems of EU countries that choose to host Ukrainian refugees. The likely increase in emigration from Ukraine into neighbouring EU countries, and even Russia, will reduce civilian resistance to Russian operations geared towards the annexation of Ukraine. With resistance warfare having been key to Ukraine’s defences in certain regions, emigration out of Ukraine will inflate Russia’s chances of success.
The weapons used in these attacks are of particular importance for analysing the conflict's geopolitical consequences. The employment of Iranian air-to-surface missiles, the Shahed-136, and the possible deployment of the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar, short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles has been highlighted recently; the provision of weapons and the Russo-Iranian partnership will further antagonise Western powers and solidify the growing East-West rivalry in current geopolitics. With fresh EU sanctions placed on Iranian entities and officials, the chances of a revived JCPOA agreement, commonly known as the "Iran nuclear deal", continue to look bleak. The EU had been pushing for the revival of the deal struck in 2015. This has rapidly changed following the current civilian uprising in Iran, supply of weapons to Russia and the reluctance of the US to further negotiate. The hope the EU held for Iran rejoining the energy market and the lower oil prices this could have led to has been lost.
To combat Russian airstrikes, Ukraine has officially requested Israeli expertise in air defence, including the Iron Dome and Iron Beam. The request creates a dilemma for Israeli officials and could create new tensions in its relationship with both the West and Russia. Israeli officials must conduct a cost-benefit analysis. There is the benefit of testing the technology and gathering information on its functionality against Iranian weapons but the Israeli government must also consider the Jewish population in Russia, the Russian diaspora in Israel as well as the current Iranian position in Syria. There is a current threat of the Jewish Agency that facilitates the immigration of Jews to Israel in Russia being shut down. It would make it very tough for Jews in Russia to immigrate to Israel if they wish. That is especially important in the present as some Russian youths are searching for ways to escape being enlisted. There are also fears of further Russian involvement in Syria in support of Iran if diplomatic ties between Russia and Israel become strained, including Russia’s current neutrality towards Israeli attacks.