On 25 April 2022, Italy moved one step further in consolidating its energy diplomacy across Africa. After securing gas deals in Libya, Morocco and Algeria, the state-owned energy group Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi (Eni) signed a US$ 5 billion deal gas liquefaction project with the Republic of Congo, from whom it had previously acquired the Tango FLNG liquefaction station in early August of 2022. Together, the facilities make up the Marine XII joint venture project along with 31 drilling wells, 10 platforms and 1 gas pre-treatment plant logistically integrated off the shores of Pointe-Noire.

Eni has been the flagship of Rome’s new foreign policy towards Africa dubbed as the Piano Mattei, initiated by Prime Minister  Giorgia Meloni as a strategy to reduce dependency on Russian gas imports by projecting its influence just below the Mediterranean Sea. Since the Piano could be pivotal for the EU to fulfil its energetic security objectives (as we previously discussed in this must-read Spotlight!), this article identifies key drivers of risk and success emerging from Eni’s new undertaking in the Republic of Congo and what is its contribution to Italy’s greater energetic security planning.

How Eni did it: Managing Political Risk in Congo

After almost 60 years in Congo, one could expect that Eni would have nurtured an engagement with the country’s most influential stakeholders in order to create an identity of interest that would later pay off as the company’s most competitive aspect to secure the resilience of its business. Interestingly, Congolese law largely centralizes the administration of oil and gas exploration projects - including the issuance of permits, renewal of contracts, and local content requirements - under the Minister of Hydrocarbons’ authority and discretion. Minister Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua, the current incumbent, not only oversaw the signing of the new LNG project but actively supports it as a potential driver of Congolese economic growth and energy self-sufficiency. Such good deeds bode well for the project's stability and are likely to work as a preemptive measure against any major regulatory disruption for the foreseeable future.

The Republic of Congo’s stable relations with Italy, the European Union and major continental powers such as France are also likely to play a stabilizing and supportive role in the operation as they currently show little signs of major degradation, even if thorny issues such as corruption, autocratic practices, and environmental degradation should be kept on a close watch for precaution’s sake. 

On the other hand, the majority of installations comprising the Marine XII project - including the ones designed to export liquefied gas - are located on the Gulf of Guinea where piracy activities targeting cargo ships happen, thus remaining a relevant risk to be observed along with the possibility of criminal violence against foreigners in Pointe-Noire. Whether Eni's previous incidents in Nigeria will foster greater investment in maritime security against piracy remains something to be seen.

Was it really all for nothing? 

Despite positive outlooks, Eni’s new undertaking in Congo is likely to do little for Italy’s energy security. Congo’s LNG production is expected to reach a peak of 4.5 billion cubic meters per year by 2025, which would only correspond to roughly 6.5 per cent of Italy’s total LNG imports in 2022. More broadly, the experience is telling of Piano Mattei’s fundamental weakness of over-pulverizing supply among possibly more reliable sources while still relying on other major individual actors.

For example, in 2020, it would take the combined gas supply of 4 countries (Netherlands, Libya, Netherlands and Qatar) to match Algeria’s participation totalling 24 per-cent in that year. While it should be recognized that Russia’s participation suffered sharp drops in 2022 and that logistical impediments could certainly hinder alternative solutions, data seems to indicate that Piano Mattei's current supply diversification strategy currently seems more like a substitution: by trading Moscow for Algiers, Rome’s new diplomatic undertaking might still be falling short of its ambitions. Nevertheless, the pursuit of risk hedges could be recognized. 

Since Meloni has veiledly thrown her support behind Algeria on the Western Sahara conflict before, further signs of support in this and other issues could indicate an appeasement with Algeria for the short term. Likewise, the share of renewable energy consumption consistently grew from 2018 to 2021 as well as their participation in Italy’s total energy consumption, despite still accounting for the smaller share. Thus, in the long term, the return of investment flows to renewables production capacity could become pivotal for Italy to achieve its desired - and fiercely pursued - energetic security.