Intelligence Brief: Balloon Operations
By: Bosco Hung
1. Introduction
A Chinese high-altitude balloon was observed in North American airspace during January and February 2023. The American administration has depicted the balloon operation as ‘part of a larger Chinese surveillance-balloon program’ and decided to shoot it down. The United States Secretary of States Antony Blinken also called off a scheduled diplomatic trip to China in response to the discovery of the balloon. Meanwhile, Beijing accused the shooting decision of being an indiscriminate use of force and criticized Washington for overreacting to the incident. Sino-US relations have therefore sharply deteriorated.
Apart from the so-called Chinese spying balloons, the United States has also observed multiple unknown objects in its airspace. While some of the floating objects do not closely resemble the so-called Chinese spying balloons, the United States has also shot them down. Nonetheless, challenges were observed when attempting to identify and shoot down the balloons and other objects, such as missing the target floating over Lake Huron on the first attempt on 13th February 2023.
This report examines the challenges posed by balloons and explores the United States’s vulnerability to balloon operations from the perspectives of material, gas filling, size, altitude, and motion. It suggests that the success of identifying and shooting down the Chinese spy balloon and other objects is coincident. The United States needs to be more well-prepared for more sophisticated balloon operations given its limited detection and shooting capabilities.
2. Analysis
Material
Modern radars are designed to detect missiles and aircraft which are often made of metal or other reflective materials. Nonetheless, some balloons are made of softer and non-reflective materials. Alternatively, balloons could be made of corner reflectors, which could confuse radar sensors or interfere with targeting systems, so the balloons may not be shown by radars. The Biden administration has also reflected that both the rump and Biden administrations have at least failed to detect four Chinese balloons sent over the American airspace. There is therefore a gap in the United States’ capabilities of detecting spying balloons.
Gas Filling
Despite their fragile appearances, modern high-altitude balloons, like the Chinese spying balloon, are filled with non-flammable and inert helium instead of hydrogen, which was used by WWI balloons and could be ignited with incendiary ammunition. Therefore, shooting down modern balloons with incendiary bullets would not cause balloons to burn in flame, so balloons became even harder to destroy in an instant. It requires more advanced weapons for the United States to bring high-altitude balloons down effectively.
Size
Moreover, modern stratospheric balloons are of a large size. It is highly intuitive that punching a hole in a small balloon would lead to an immediate burst of it. However, in the case of Chinese spying balloon, it is about 200 feet tall, which is comparable to a 20-storey building. For other high-altitude balloons like NASA’s balloons, they could be more than 40 billion cubic feet. When fully inflated, the balloon could accommodate a whole football stadium in it. Also considering the small pressure difference between the inside and outside, using bullets to create a few holes in the balloon envelope would only lead to a slow leakage of air, instead of causing an immediate collapse of the balloon. Back in 1998, the Canadian air force already attempted to use more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon to bring a weather balloon down, but the holes created failed to cause a significant ejection of bas, so the balloon continued drifting over the coast of Newfoundland. This reflects how difficult it is to destroy the balloon instantly with the use of bullets.
Altitude
Balloons float at a different altitude from commercial planes and military jets. In general, commercial aircraft fly between 31,000 and 38,000 feet. Admittedly, military jets might fly higher to avoid traffic and unfavourable weather, but they do not typically operate above 65,000 feet. On the other hand, although the three objects spotted in February over the United States and Canada flew at an altitude of 19,700-39,400 metres, observation balloons generally can float around the stratosphere at a height of more than 100,000 feet. The air there can be roughly a thousand times thinner than in the troposphere. The low air density could significantly impair propeller efficiency and decrease the engine’s power output. The control surfaces, such as the fins, wings, and tail of most of the United States military’s air-to-air missiles could become less effective when operating at a high altitude. Therefore, it could be difficult for military aircraft to fly near high-altitude balloons, not to mention shoot the balloons.
The United States Air Force has used the fifth-generation F-22 Raptor to shoot the Chinese balloon down, but its maximum operating altitude is only 65,000 feet. In the case of Chinese spying balloon, it is coincident that that the balloon was operating around 60,000 and 65,000 feet instead of above 80,000 feet as other high-altitude balloons usually do. This allows the F-22 Raptor to hit the balloon using an AIM-9X Sidewinder short-range missile at an altitude of 58,000 feet, which was within F-22’s operating range. However, the American Air Force may not be that fortunate in the next balloon incident, if the balloon operates at an even higher altitude next time. Admittedly, it could be pushed to operate at a higher altitude, but it could not guarantee high effectiveness. The American military would therefore need to develop military aircraft or other weapons that could overcome the altitude challenges, so that it could cope with future balloon operations.
Motion
Surface-to-air missile guidance systems are often designed to hit fast-moving missiles and aircraft, so they could fail to identify the balloons or maintain a track on the objects. Therefore, taking a radar shot using missiles like the AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missile deployed in F-22 could have a low probability of success. Also, when the balloon is stationary in the air but the aircraft is moving at a high speed, it is difficult to hit the target, even if the balloon has a massive size. To guarantee accuracy, the American military has to develop missiles and guidance systems capable of dealing with stationary objects floating above the ground.
3. Conclusion
Ultimately, there is still a gap in the United States’s detection and shooting capabilities in coping with balloon operations. It is possible that China or other countries could utilize bigger balloons at a higher altitude, which could make it more difficult for the United States to detect them or shoot them down. Although the United States has successfully shot down floating objects in the incidents this year, the past shortcomings of detecting balloons and the failure of shooting an object down in one attempt have exposed its adequacies in addressing balloon threats.