Conflict Scenario: Digital Safety and Youth Counter-Recruitment in Zone 18, Guatemala City

In 2027, Guatemala City’s Zone 18 faces a rapidly evolving crisis as gangs like MS-13 and Barrio 18 shift their recruitment and control tactics into the digital realm. Leveraging platforms such as TikTok, WhatsApp, and Facebook, these groups deploy targeted propaganda, coercion, and disinformation to manipulate and recruit youth, undermining community trust and compromising education environments. This scenario explores the escalation of digital gang influence in one of the city's most vulnerable districts, the breakdown of traditional protective structures, and the resulting threats to youth safety and NGO operations. It outlines both the digital dynamics of the conflict and adaptive strategies for NGOs focused on youth protection, cybersecurity, and counter-messaging in an environment where online threats increasingly mirror, and often surpass, the risks of physical violence.