Conflict Scenario: Gender-Based Violence and Women's Protection Amid Cartel Warfare in Nuevo Laredo, Mexico

This scenario examines the intensifying gender-based violence (GBV) crisis in Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, as cartel warfare intersects with institutional collapse. In 2027, the Cártel del Noreste (CDN) exerts near-total control over the city, using violence and intimidation to target women and girls, particularly those in low-income communities and civil society roles. Women’s shelters are raided, human rights defenders threatened, and coerced relationships enforced as mechanisms of dominance. Meanwhile, military interventions have failed to provide safety, often compounding fear through arbitrary detentions and impunity. As GBV becomes a systemic tool of cartel governance, women’s rights NGOs face unprecedented threats and diminished access to safe operating space. The scenario highlights the erosion of legal protections, the targeting of frontline workers, and the psychological warfare waged through digital propaganda, demanding nuanced and risk-sensitive approaches to women’s protection in conflict zones.