The Wagner Rebellion: Implications for the War in Ukraine
Recap
The Wagner Group, under the command of Yevgeny Prigozhin, made headlines when they marched on Moscow in response to allegations that top Russian defence officials, Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov had authorised the bombing of Wagner troops in Ukraine. Seizing control of parts of Rostov-on-Don, including the Russian Federation Armed Forces (RFAF) headquarters of the Southern Military District, the Wagner Group initiated its march towards Moscow. Prigozhin’s reported objective was to remove senior military leadership, but the Wagner troops’ advance halted 200 kilometres short of the capital. Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, intervened and mediated between Putin, Prigozhin, and the Wagner Group. As a result, Prigozhin agreed to go into exile in Belarus, accompanied by any remaining loyal Wagner troops, and criminal charges against all involved were eventually dropped. Currently, Prigozhin’s whereabouts remain unclear.
Short-term
The 24-hour rebellion seems to have left minimal vulnerabilities for Ukrainian troops to exploit. Ukraine's troops could have been expected to look for weaknesses along the line of contact and possibly target sites in Russia to create a heightened sense of danger for the Kremlin. This could have forced Russia to divert troops and military assets from Ukraine to internal security. However, these actions have not materialised, indicating that Ukrainian forces remain focused on executing their counter-offensive plans.
Similarly, the Wagner forces had no major role to play in Russia's line of defence and instead played a central role in the Bakhmut conflict. However, as tensions arose between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defence, the troops had already withdrawn from the region. One further factor explaining why the rebellion had little effect on the war in Ukraine in the short term is that the mutiny ended without the need to withdraw Russian units from Ukraine to counter it.
Wagner troops in Belarus
On 11 July, the Belarusian Defence Ministry announced on Telegram that the Wagner mercenaries will train the Belarussian and Russian troops. Joint training would allow the Belarussian army to “benefit from the combat experience of Wagner commanders” according to Lukashenko.
Movement around the Russian training facilities in Belarus had added to speculation as to the future of what the partnership between the military structures of Belarus, Russia and the private structures would look like. On 27 June, satellite images showed activity at a disused military base near Asipovichy. The military dismantled training grounds in 3 locations: Abuz-Lyasnouski, Lepel and Repishch, and instead a larger camp with a capacity to host 15,000 soldiers was built in Tsel located 80 kilometres southeast of Minsk.
By sending more Wagner and Russian troops to Belarus, the Kremlin could be seeking to distract Ukrainian intelligence services and sow doubt as to Russia's next steps. Indeed, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy convened a meeting to discuss bolstering the nation's defence along the border with Belarus on 5 July, reflecting growing concern about the increased presence of Russian troops in Belarus.
Wagner troops in Russia
Russia's Defence Ministry announced that the Wagner Group should surrender its supply of weapons, while Putin invited its fighters to join the Russian Army instead of leaving for Belarus. This follows an original plan announced mid-June which was to have all Wagner troops (dubbed "volunteer detachments") sign contracts with the Defence Ministry by 1 July to increase the combat capabilities and effectiveness of the Russian Army. This would have given the mercenaries legal status and effectively unified the military approaches. However, Prigozhin rejected signing such contracts, which further escalated tensions between him and the top military chiefs – particularly defence minister Sergei Shoigu –, ultimately contributing to the outbreak of the rebellion. As of 3 July though, Wagner Group was still officially recruiting to train in Russia’s Krasnodar region, thereby defying the truce brokered by Lukashenko.
Integrating Wagner fighters into the Russian army would be challenging, as Russian soldiers appear to be poorly or irregularly paid, undertrained, and suffer from low morale. In addition, mercenaries are relatively well paid and would struggle in respecting the chain of command. The nature of mercenaries remains self-serving, as highlighted in Olivia Gibson’s article. They are used to working independently from the Russian state and its chain of command, so collaboration could undermine rather than strengthen the Defence Ministry’s military goals. Because of these difficulties, it is more likely that the Wagner troops will continue to fight as mercenaries, possibly under a different name and with a new command, one far more subordinate to the Kremlin.
A profound mistrust exists between the public and private entities. Still, the prospect of another mutiny attempt is highly unlikely. This implies that a majority of Wagner's soldiers will be prepared to accept an alternative leadership closer to, or even part of, the Russian Defence Ministry. On the day of the rebellion, Chechen leader Kadyrov expressed his support for Putin, and reportedly sent troops to counter Wagner’s march. Therefore, we can also expect Putin to replace some Wagner forces with Chechen soldiers.
Conclusion
Although no tangible military effects have been observed, Russian forces risk suffering a setback in Ukraine if Russia loses a large number of Wagner fighters in the long term. It is also likely that Wagner's rebellion will have a long-term negative impact on the already low morale of Russian front-line soldiers and on the cohesion of the command structure of the military operation. The repercussions, therefore, go beyond the immediate, as senior Russian officials could be diverted from the ongoing war effort should a government reshuffle occur at senior military levels. One might have expected Putin to assign responsibility for the failure to suppress the uprising at its outset and to imprison Prigozhin. However, he did not do so and met Prigozhin five days after the failed mutiny. Nevertheless, internal conflicts are likely to emerge, as the Wagner troops require tighter supervision, something that could weaken the management of the Russian army in Ukraine, allowing Ukrainian attack forces to exploit certain vulnerabilities.
The Kremlin's ability to effectively operate the Wagner troops in Prigozhin's absence will be crucial in ensuring that the rebellion does not have a long-term impact on the invasion of Ukraine. However, if the Kremlin concentrates on dismantling the Wagner group and assigning blame to its senior officials, Ukraine could benefit from Priogozhin's failed march.
Wagner Intel Brief- 24/06 at 13:04 BST
Yevgeny Prigozhin called for a rebellion against the army on June 23rd, and urged the army not to resist, calling it a "march of justice”. This came after Prigozhin claimed that Wagner military sites in Ukraine were attacked by Russian artillery on Chief of General Staff Gerasimov's orders after a meeting with Defence Minister Shoigu, where they decided to eliminate Wagner.
Wagner forces have been vital in Russia's Ukrainian war, capturing the city of Bakhmut. However, Prigozhin has repeatedly criticised Russia's military leaders for incompetence and neglecting his troops' needs.
Yevgeny Prigozhin speaking inside the headquarters of the Russian southern military district in the city of Rostov-on-Don
Russian government response
Immediately after, security services called for the arrest of Prigozhin. Security was heightened in Moscow and in Rostov-on-Don (“Fortress operation”).
Putin denounced a “treason” and “mutiny” but denies calling it a military coup.
A counter-terrorism regime was introduced in Moscow, the Moscow region and Voronezh region (9AM BTS).
Governors of Sverdlovsk and Bryansk regions introduce high alert regime - Russian media (12PM BTS)
Military developments
Rostov-on-Don
Evening of 23rd: Wagner surrounded military HQ and the city of Rostov-on-Don, “no resistance from Russian military” and in spite of alleged roadblocks put in the place by the military (tweet)
Announcement of Prigozhin from the HQ of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don which Wagner PMC now fully control (video). He states that he has full control of the military installations to ensure that the Russian air force are attacking Ukrainians, and not Wagner troops. He calls for Shoigu and Gerasimov to be given up by the Russian authorities.
A Wagner convoy near Voronezh controls the Don highway (video).
Wagner installs mine barriers made of TM-62 anti-tank guns in Rostov-on-Don.
Wagners are mining the streets of Rostov-on-Don, setting up roadblocks and firing positions, Russian public media reports, citing eyewitnesses at the scene (video).
Voronezh
Wagner column seen 2 km from Buturlinovka, Voronezh region (video).Voronezh is located between the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don and Moscow. So as Wagner forces are expected to head towards Moscow, Russian Air Forces are allegedly attacking Wagner convoys along the M4 highway (other source).
At the Bugaivka border crossing in the Voronezh region, another 180 Russian soldiers and law enforcement officers agreed not to interfere with the Wagner action and laid down their arms. It is not the only report made by Progozhin about the support from the Russian border control officers’ side.
The battle was filmed in the Voronezh region. Judging by the sounds in the video, there was an active firefight between the Russian army and Wagner (around 9am BST). https://t.me/lachentyt/30933.
The road towards Voronezh is heavily damaged (Telegram post with video). It is reported that the Russian Armed Forces were shooting. The video shows that a civilian car was damaged.
Images of Russian soldiers surrending in Voronezh.
Heavy convoy in Voronezh, at 9:30 BST, the convoy is about 445km from Moscow.
Another video showing column moving towards Moscow
In Rostov, explosions ripped through the headquarters of the Southern Military District (around 12 BST).
Explosion 1672544456929693696 - geolocated
Moscow
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation take up positions near the bridge over the Oka River near Serpukhov, where the M2 "Crimea" highway runs towards Moscow (around 10:00 BST).
Checkpoints with APCs have been set up at the entrance to Moscow, local media reports say.
The movement of the Wagner military column towards Moscow (11:30 BST)
Video confirmation of Counter-Terrorism Committee (branch of the FSB) buildup in Moscow
Translation: “I have a dream in which Moscow is burning. Good luck, not a step back” (Sheik Mansur Battalion)
Unconfirmed (mainly happening in the Voronezh region)
A warplane, likely a transport aircraft, was shot down over Voronezh. So far, it looks like Wagner was responsible. Allegations that the plane was carrying hundreds of Kadyrov soldiers.
Oil depot in Voronezh was bombed by a helicopter (video, video). The attacker responsible for the fire in unknown.
The Wagner PMC destroyed 4 helicopters of the Russian Armed Forces and one AN-26/Su-25 (other video, video, video)
A military convoy wan noticed moving towards Krasnodar.
Medvedev and his family have allegedly escaped from Moscow?
Situation updates
Map of Wagner progress
Other actors:
Ramzan Kadyrov - Head of the Chechen Republic - supports Putin and calls Wagner’s operation a military coup.
Fighters from the Storm-Z group endorsed Prigozhin & are willing to join Wagner if they require their assistance. On June 19th, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced it was replacing the Wagner Group convict troops with its own Storm-Z battalions and Chechen special forces. This initiative sparked allegations of the “Russian army 'on verge of civil war'.
Kalinowski's Regiment prepares an address to the Belarusian people at 17:00 Minsk time. (The Kastusia Kalinouski Regiment (Polk Kastusia Kalinouski) is a volunteer regiment (formerly a battalion) formed in February 2022 to defend Ukraine against Russian invasion)
Russian Volunteer Corps is interested in the developments and asks Russian people share the footage with the location of checkpoints, equipment to their Telegram bot.
Translation:
Friends, members of the Russian Volunteer Corps are very interested in what is happening in their hometowns today.
Sheik Mansur Battalion - Reports of increased tension in the Republics of Chechnya and Ingushetia as orders restricting movement outside of the regions are put into effect - Source
Translation - “Collaborators of the occupied Checnya and Ingushetia start to fuss. Orders are being received not to move outside the republics, even if neigboring regions ask for it. Fear…tremble enemies of the freedom-lovers
You can send photos/video information showing roadblocks, equipment and other attempts of the regime to defend itself to the bot of our channel.
We are most interested in Moscow, Rostov and Voronezh.
Reaction:
- Дума statement:
“The history of Russia has shown that external challenges and threats have united our society. Together we are able to overcome any difficulties.
The problems and troubles of the country have always occurred only because of betrayal, internal division and betrayal of the elites.
The deputies of the State Duma, representing the interests of the citizens of the Russian Federation, advocate for the consolidation of forces, support President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin — our Supreme Commander-in-Chief.
The Wagner fighters must make the only right choice: to be with their people, on the side of the law, to protect the security and future of the Motherland, to carry out the orders of the Supreme Commander.
Anything else is a betrayal!
We are confronted by a common external enemy that promotes the ideology of Nazism — destroys Russian citizens, threatens the security of our country.
In this situation, it is necessary to unite even more and do everything to win”
Ukrainian reaction and comments:
Moscow is preparing for a siege. The city is virtually isolated by police and military units. All military equipment that has remained in reserve and border regions is being moved to Moscow - the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine
Security forces have received permission to:
Listen to any conversations and checking correspondence
Conduct detentions and searches without additional approvals
Forceful access to private and official premises
Use motor vehicles of citizens and organisations
Disconnect all types of communication
"Removal of individuals from areas and objects".
Published: around 12:15 BTS.